Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Brazil’s Time Has Come

May 28th, 2010

By John Gude

My firm, Boyden Global Executive Search, has operated in Brazil since 1968, and I would venture to say that we know this market very well.  We have just published The Boyden Report: Brazil for our friends and clients, and I just could not resist talking to you about the information that you can find in this extensive document. There has been a significant shift in Brazil’s global stature, and Boyden presents the views and insights of seven senior business executives to hear why they believe that this country is now walking on the ‘big stage’.

Who are some of these people?  For the most part, they head Brazilian subsidiaries of global companies, and they are noted drivers of key businesses and other organizations that are prominent in Brazil.  They include people ranging from the Presidents of Abbott Laboratories and Caterpillar in Brazil to the Chairman of CleanStar Brazil Bioenergia.

Brazil is moving and growing fast on the world stage, and if you question this, look at some of these facts:

Brazil had the world’s best-performing major current against the US dollar last year, with a 36% advance according to Bloomberg.

Brazil was home to the worl’s largest IPO in 2009.  Santader Brazil’s IPO valued the bank’s Brazilian subsidiary was valued at more than the whole of Deutsche Bank worldwide.

Sao Paulo is among the world’s top five futures and options markets.

Brazil was home to the world’s fastest growing car market in 2007-2009.

Brazil was a major source of stability for many multinationals in the global recession that started in 2007.

32 out of the 50 largest companies in Brazil are foreign multinationals.  But there are also 5 fast growing, Brazilian companies that have achieved recognition as serious multinational competitors in markets ranging from food to aircraft.

The World Bank predicts that if Brazil continues on its current path, it will move from being the tenths largest economy in the world to the fifth largest by 2016. As such, Boyden reports that the FTSE Group  positions Brazil as an ‘Advanced Emerging Economy’ along a different level of the development curve than the other so-called BRIC countries.

Given its stage of development, the contributors to this report provide a compelling case for the solid foundations of the ‘new’ Brazil.  They point to the political system, where the country has apparently achieved stability in the form of a robust, established democratic republic.  In terms of infrastructure, they talk to the banking systems and financial markets as large, stable, and relatively mature.

Brazil, it is pointed out, has new opportunity drivers that are unique in Latin America.  One driver is the consumer market, with millions of people who suddenly have purchasing power.  This shift is said to be dramatic, as people are moving from Class D to Class C or Class C to Class B.  By some estimates, over 30 million people have been lifted out of poverty and given discretionary income.

A second energy driver is the country’s emergency as an energy superpower based on its oil production and reserves.  But it has also taken a lead in on the energy stage through its growing renewable energy credentials including hydro-electric power generation and its well-known investment in the production of ethanol fuels.

Our people ‘on the ground’ tell us that there is an optimism and a pulse of positive activity and growth that is pulsating throughout the country.  One of our long-term partners in Sao Paulo says “I have never before witnessed such optimism here as I do today.”  Another long-term Boyden partner states “Brazilians always used to joke that they lived in the ‘eternal country of the future’ but it seems that our ‘future’ has now arrived”.

Would you like to know more about Brazil? Would you like to know our view on hiring in Brazil as a major executive search firm? Simply download the entire Boyden report on Brazil by clicking here.

Has The Jobless Rate Peaked? Could Any Recovery From This Recession Be Different?

December 6th, 2009

JohnGude1a

By  John Gude

Wise people would probably respond to either of these questions with caution and with the objective of providing no real answer.  Or at least no answer for which they might be held accountable.  This recession has been a tough one for most businesses and many people, and as defined by a whole host of measures. After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an unemployment rate of 10.2% for October, the highest such measurement in 26 years.

My gut tells me that this recession will be remembered a little differently than most of the others since World War II.  This one will be remembered more for the pain that it has created for people–those who lost their jobs, those who couldn’t find any reasonable job, and those who just stopped looking. I also have come to feel that the effects of this recession have been internalized by a large segment of our population, and that all traditional socio-economic groups and geographies are well represented here.

This past July, I came across a Commentary by Susan Estrich that addressed the unemployment situation, and I was struck by the emotion that dwelled in her words.  You can read it here, but listen her closing thoughts:

“The point is, I have always had a job, usually more than one, had no sympathy for those who couldn’t find one.

“Until now.

“I have never seen or lived through anything quite like this.  There are no            jobs for lawyers or laborers, for painters or waitresses, for secretaries or              salespeople.  There are literally no jobs to be had.”

Get my point?

It is now early December, and there are two, maybe three indications of better news.  Last Friday (December 4), the BLS posted a news release to tell us that the unemployment rate had “edged down” to 10.0% from 10.2%.  This is a very modest movement, but at least it is in the right direction.

But before the BLS released their report, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) issued a report that could be much more telling.  In the December 5 New York Times, Floyd Norris tells us that “The Jobless Rate May Have Hit Its Peak.”

Mr. Norris presents a very interesting analysis and commentary based largely on the release of one key economic indicator by the ISM.  If this indicator is accurate, the unemployment rate for October will have been high rate for the business cycle. He points out that this indicator has proved to be reliable in all 10 previous recessions since World War II.

But look at this:  Mr. Norris states that if other ISM data prove correct, the recovery from this recession will be very different from the “jobless” recoveries after the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001. In both instances, the unemployment rates rose for months after the official end of the recession.

As a part of their survey the ISM asks employers whether they would be adding to or reducing their workforce.  The report showed that more companies were hiring than reducing employment in both October and November.  In the past, Mr. Norris states, two such months of gains in the employment component always came after the recession was later determined to have ended, and after the unemployment rate had begun to decline, with only one exception.

So just maybe the jobless rate has peaked, and there could be something other than a “jobless” recovery to this recession.  If so, this recession will be called the Recession of 2007-2009 and not the Recession of 2007-2010.  And maybe the pain created by the unemployment associated with this recession will begin to fade.